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Time series models for area, production and productivity forecasting in cotton crop of India

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Author: 
Sundar Rajan, M. and Palanivel, M.
Abstract: 

This study aims at presenting models for the forecasting time-series data of cotton (Gossypiumhirsutum) Area, Production and Productivity of India by using Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models of time-series forecasting. The Time series data covering the period of 1951–2014 was used for the study. Presence of trend was checked through time series data were forecast for the staring from 2015-2021 the cultivated area, production and productivity of cotton in India using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are calculated based on using this selected model. A comparison of these forecasts with observed values over this time period indicated that the model was highly accurate. The performances of the models are of ARIMA family for modeling as well as forecasting purpose.

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