The analyzing of rainfall variability on agricultural growing season in Narok county, Kenya

In recent decades, climate variability has been experienced globally. The rainfall patterns in Kenya are becoming unpredictable just like other regions in Sub-Saharan Africa. Rainfall variability affects crop yields by influencing growth and development rate, pests and diseases. Changes in rainfall patterns occur in the late onset of long rains and low average amount throughout the year. In Narok County, droughts often translate into food shortages and fluctuations in agricultural production. The current study examined the varying rainfall patterns during the wheat growing season of March-April-May. The study aimed at determining the inter-annual variability trends in onset, amount, cessation, and number of rainy days. In this research, Climate Research Unit (CRU) rainfall data set of 36 years (1981 to 2016) was obtained from Kenya Meteorological Department. Rainfall characteristics were analyzed using variability indices. The individual R2 for onset, rain days, cessation and amount was 0.55, 0.5, 0.019 and 0.014 respectively. This showed that onset and number of rain days are the major rainfall characteristics likely to affect wheat yields. The results further showed that there was no significant impact of the rainfall characteristics on wheat. There is need for wheat farmers to adapt sustainable strategies in order to cope with seasonal rainfall variability associated risks.